See the potential impact on your farm.
Adjust the scenario and assumptions to explore how an outbreak could affect your business.
Scenario inputs
Key assumptions Defaults follow the selected disease and response. Changes to the farm, date or scenario reset overrides. Open Costs & assumptions for the evidence.
Costs & assumptionsExplore the evidence and adjust response costs.
Herd culled
Source-backed View basis & source
8 infected premises nationally, IP + dangerous-contact cull only, no contiguous cull. The Surveillance Zone cannot lift earlier than 30 days after preliminary cleansing & disinfection at the infected premises.
Source: Anderson Review, FMD 2007, HC 312 (2008)
Full stoppage
Source-backed View basis & source
8 infected premises nationally, IP + dangerous-contact cull only, no contiguous cull. The Surveillance Zone cannot lift earlier than 30 days after preliminary cleansing & disinfection at the infected premises.
Source: Anderson Review, FMD 2007, HC 312 (2008)
Days to complete cull
Assumption View basis & source
Days from confirmed diagnosis to completed on-farm cull; the herd is still milked (and that milk dumped) during this lag. The 2001 policy target was 24 hours, met in ~80% of cases by April 2001 (post the 26-Mar policy tightening); 3 days is a conservative round-up for the slower, unquantified tail and the harder-pressed early weeks of an epidemic.
Source: Hansard, House of Commons, 9 Apr 2001 (Nick Brown MP); NAO HC 939 (2002)
Response costs
GBP (£)Edit the rate below. The breakdown applies it to this scenario’s cows or milk volume.
Assumption View basis & source
Not applied: FMD is confirmed by APHA/laboratory diagnosis, not a farmer-run testing programme like bTB's herd skin test.
Source: MooNitoring cost-applicability judgement, government_slaughter_disease_simulation
Source-backed View basis & source
Barnes et al. dairy-breakdown median (£484). Held flat, not flat+variable: Barnes itself reports this cost is driven by farm/business structure (P25 = £0, i.e. many breakdowns show no cost at all) rather than scaling with herd size, so a per-head split would have zero evidentiary basis. Formula: £484.12 flat, one-time.
Source: Barnes et al. 2023, Prev. Vet. Medicine (dairy consequential-cost survey)
Source-backed View basis & source
UK 2001 FMD national cleansing & disinfection spend (£304m) ÷ ~2,026 infected premises ÷ ~650 average cull head/premises, expressed per-head since decontamination scales with animal density rather than as a flat fee. Figure is 2001 nominal GBP, not inflated to 2026 (UK CPI since 2001 implies roughly 1.8-2.0x), so it likely understates current cost. Formula: £230.90 per head culled.
Source: National Audit Office, 'The 2001 Outbreak of Foot and Mouth Disease' (2002); MooNitoring severity evidence QCS-E010/E026
Source-backed View basis & source
UK 2001 FMD national haulage & disposal spend, the 69.9% 'rendering/incineration/other routes' share; the other 30.1% (£113m 'mass burial pit infrastructure') is excluded as crisis-driven and rare (only 4-7 regional sites built, used by roughly 10-14% of infected premises, concentrated around Cumbria/Dumfries & Galloway). The remaining per-head rate cross-checks against UK avian-flu secondary-cleansing bills (Livetec Systems/NFU Mutual data), which run comparable in order of magnitude. Formula: £199.14 per head culled/removed.
Source: National Audit Office, 'The 2001 Outbreak of Foot and Mouth Disease' (2002); Treasury Minute Cm 5801 (2003); Hunter et al., Emerging Infectious Diseases 9(1) 2003 (disposal-route tonnage split); MooNitoring severity evidence QCS-E010/E025
Assumption View basis & source
Milk produced but not collectable (pre-cull, or under a zone collection ban) must be destroyed on-farm, pumped to the slurry store or tankered off; no published milk-specific disposal-service cost was found (checked AHDB/GOV.UK guidance, method only, no cost). This rate is a PROXY: the UK bulk-tank antibiotic-residue rejection penalty (~10p/litre) converted to £/1,000 kg at 1.03 kg/L density, an order-of-magnitude floor likely below the true collection-and-haulage cost. Formula: £98.71 per 1,000 kg dumped × the milk actually dumped in this scenario (volume shown in the ledger).
Source: Proxy: UK dairy bulk-tank antibiotic-residue rejection charge (industry guidance, ~10p/litre); no direct milk-disposal-service benchmark located (AHDB 'Disposing milk on farm'; GOV.UK milk-disposal guidance, method only)
Modelled values
Average cow value£1,876
Derived from this farm’s age profile and an England compensation-table proxy.Avoided feed, water & vet£3.04/cow/day
Applied after cull completion. No avoided costs on a zone farm. Labour is excluded.Results
Uninsured 120-day exposure Lost milk revenue and response costs, less avoided feed, water and veterinary costs. Herd asset value is treated separately. This demo does not assess insurance coverage.
£873,305
Lost income and response costs after avoided costs.
Cows culled The selected cull share multiplied by the herd at the outbreak date, rounded to whole cows.
525of 553 cowsHerd asset value Estimated value of the culled cows, based on the farm’s age profile. Shown separately from uninsured exposure.
£985,107estimated valueGross event impact Herd asset value + gross milk revenue lost + response costs, before avoided costs are deducted.
£2,045,144total estimated impactMilk revenue
Jul 23 – Nov 24. Total height = revenue without outbreak. Full calendar months; the first and last outbreak months include unaffected days.
View chart data
| Month | Without outbreak | Revenue retained | Revenue lost |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 23 | £229,275 | £229,275 | £0 |
| Aug 23 | £215,774 | £215,774 | £0 |
| Sep 23 | £220,910 | £220,910 | £0 |
| Oct 23 | £223,392 | £223,392 | £0 |
| Nov 23 | £212,616 | £212,616 | £0 |
| Dec 23 | £234,335 | £234,335 | £0 |
| Jan 24 | £239,219 | £239,219 | £0 |
| Feb 24 | £236,431 | £236,431 | £0 |
| Mar 24 | £265,818 | £265,818 | £0 |
| Apr 24 | £257,190 | £257,190 | £0 |
| May 24 | £261,433 | £261,433 | £0 |
| Jun 24 | £231,705 | £231,705 | £0 |
| Jul 24 | £221,660 | £99,614 | £122,047 |
| Aug 24 | £206,144 | £6,007 | £200,137 |
| Sep 24 | £213,253 | £10,663 | £202,590 |
| Oct 24 | £235,150 | £11,758 | £223,393 |
| Nov 24 | £226,955 | £148,263 | £78,692 |
Behind the numbers
The calculation, line by line.
A transparent breakdown of estimated costs and avoided costs for this outbreak scenario.
| Item | Calculation basis | Amount |
|---|---|---|
Milk revenue lost Milk revenue lostRevenue without an outbreak minus revenue under this scenario, across 120 days. The model uses the farm’s recorded production and monthly milk prices. This includes both the initial stoppage and the following 90 days. | £826,859 | |
Full stoppage Full stoppage30 days without marketable milk, using this farm’s recorded production and milk prices. 8 infected premises nationally, IP + dangerous-contact cull only, no contiguous cull. The Surveillance Zone cannot lift earlier than 30 days after preliminary cleansing & disinfection at the infected premises. Source: Anderson Review, FMD 2007, HC 312 (2008) | 30 days | £208,053 |
Reduced herd Reduced herdThe culled share (95%) is not replaced during the 90 days after restrictions. Lost revenue follows the farm’s recorded production and monthly milk prices during that period. 8 infected premises nationally, IP + dangerous-contact cull only, no contiguous cull. The Surveillance Zone cannot lift earlier than 30 days after preliminary cleansing & disinfection at the infected premises. Source: Anderson Review, FMD 2007, HC 312 (2008) | 90 days | £618,806 |
Avoided costs Avoided costsOperating costs no longer incurred for culled cows are deducted from milk revenue lost when calculating uninsured exposure. Feed, water and veterinary costs are avoided from cull completion until the end of the 120-day scenario. The calculation uses 525 culled cows × 117 days absent × £3.04 per cow per day. Labour stays fixed and is excluded. | −£186,732 | |
Feed, water & veterinary costs Feed, water & veterinary costsFeed, water and veterinary costs are avoided from cull completion until the end of the 120-day scenario. The calculation uses 525 culled cows × 117 days absent × £3.04 per cow per day. Labour stays fixed and is excluded. Basis: purchased-feed and veterinary benchmarks, with a water-cost assumption. See the evidence page for the source references. Evidence & sources ↗ | 525 cows × 117 days × £3.04 | −£186,732 |
Response costs Response costsThe sum of the response items below. Per-farm rates are charged once; per-cow rates use the number culled; milk disposal uses the volume dumped. Rates and their evidence can be reviewed in Costs & assumptions. | £233,178 | |
Testing & handling Testing & handlingNot applied: FMD is confirmed by APHA/laboratory diagnosis, not a farmer-run testing programme like bTB's herd skin test. Source: MooNitoring cost-applicability judgement, government_slaughter_disease_simulation Applied rate: £0.00 per farm. | £0.00 per farm | £0 |
Movement restriction management Movement restriction managementBarnes et al. dairy-breakdown median (£484). Held flat, not flat+variable: Barnes itself reports this cost is driven by farm/business structure (P25 = £0, i.e. many breakdowns show no cost at all) rather than scaling with herd size, so a per-head split would have zero evidentiary basis. Formula: £484.12 flat, one-time. Source: Barnes et al. 2023, Prev. Vet. Medicine (dairy consequential-cost survey) Applied rate: £484.12 per farm. | £484.12 per farm | £484 |
Cleansing & disinfection: full premises (stamping-out scale) Cleansing & disinfection: full premises (stamping-out scale)UK 2001 FMD national cleansing & disinfection spend (£304m) ÷ ~2,026 infected premises ÷ ~650 average cull head/premises, expressed per-head since decontamination scales with animal density rather than as a flat fee. Figure is 2001 nominal GBP, not inflated to 2026 (UK CPI since 2001 implies roughly 1.8-2.0x), so it likely understates current cost. Formula: £230.90 per head culled. Source: National Audit Office, 'The 2001 Outbreak of Foot and Mouth Disease' (2002); MooNitoring severity evidence QCS-E010/E026 Applied rate: £230.90 per culled cow. | £230.90 per culled cow × 525 cows | £121,223 |
Carcass haulage & disposal Carcass haulage & disposalUK 2001 FMD national haulage & disposal spend, the 69.9% 'rendering/incineration/other routes' share; the other 30.1% (£113m 'mass burial pit infrastructure') is excluded as crisis-driven and rare (only 4-7 regional sites built, used by roughly 10-14% of infected premises, concentrated around Cumbria/Dumfries & Galloway). The remaining per-head rate cross-checks against UK avian-flu secondary-cleansing bills (Livetec Systems/NFU Mutual data), which run comparable in order of magnitude. Formula: £199.14 per head culled/removed. Source: National Audit Office, 'The 2001 Outbreak of Foot and Mouth Disease' (2002); Treasury Minute Cm 5801 (2003); Hunter et al., Emerging Infectious Diseases 9(1) 2003 (disposal-route tonnage split); MooNitoring severity evidence QCS-E010/E025 Applied rate: £199.14 per culled cow. | £199.14 per culled cow × 525 cows | £104,549 |
Milk disposal: uncollected milk Milk disposal: uncollected milkMilk produced but not collectable (pre-cull, or under a zone collection ban) must be destroyed on-farm, pumped to the slurry store or tankered off; no published milk-specific disposal-service cost was found (checked AHDB/GOV.UK guidance, method only, no cost). This rate is a PROXY: the UK bulk-tank antibiotic-residue rejection penalty (~10p/litre) converted to £/1,000 kg at 1.03 kg/L density, an order-of-magnitude floor likely below the true collection-and-haulage cost. Formula: £98.71 per 1,000 kg dumped × the milk actually dumped in this scenario (volume shown in the ledger). Source: Proxy: UK dairy bulk-tank antibiotic-residue rejection charge (industry guidance, ~10p/litre); no direct milk-disposal-service benchmark located (AHDB 'Disposing milk on farm'; GOV.UK milk-disposal guidance, method only) Applied rate: £98.71 per 1,000 kg dumped. | £98.71 per 1,000 kg dumped · 70,118 kg dumped | £6,921 |
Uninsured exposure Uninsured exposureMilk revenue lost minus avoided operating costs plus response costs. Herd asset value is treated separately under the demo’s compensation assumption. This is an illustrative scenario, not a coverage decision or an insurance quote. Milk revenue lost − avoided costs + response costs | £873,305 | |